It's complex...

Today in the upside down…

It’s really difficult to pick just one upside down thing each day when there is so much intention behind multiple, senseless, outrageous acts that are specifically designed to enrage, distract, or frighten us. And yet, I persist.

In all of the weirdness of the last few days of authoritarian nonsense, the actions of Musk and his postadolescent incels who have demanded (and been apparently given) access to the guts of the government fit into a broad category that can be characterized. For starters, it’s “stupid”.

David Brooks had a column a few days ago about the Six Principles of Stupidity (https://www.nytimes.com/2025/01/30/opinion/trump-executive-orders.html). He defines stupidity as “behaving in a way that ignores the question: What would happen next?”. His basic point is that the stream of Executive Orders coming out of the White House, most of which are illegal or nonsensical and have about as much practical impact as a Truth, are stupid. You could argue that the extremists and ideologues behind Project 2025 actually did ask that question since they’ve been composting these Eos since Trump lost in 2020. However, if they did, they were completely incapable of answering the question because they simply don’t understand that the government isn’t complicated, it’s complex.

I’ve been using Stan McChrystal’s differentiation between those two terms that he articulates in “Team of Teams”. A car engine is something that is complicated. There are lots of parts and pieces that work together, but you can figure out how they work, you can reproduce them reliably, and there is a pretty predictable outcome (power produced) from what you put in (gas and air).

Human organizations, teams, and conflict are generally complex. It’s impossible to chart all of the variables, the way they interact, and what they’ll do in any given situation. The same inputs don’t reliably yield the same outputs and it’s impossible to predict perfectly what might result from a given set of interactions. That means with complex systems, you have to think especially hard about “what would happen next” and accept with humility that you can’t predict with certainty so you should proceed with caution.

That is not what’s going on across the government as Musk and his henchmen wantonly remove things, cancel things, and disrupt things about which they have no idea. There are too many to list, but many of the disruptions are going to hurt and even kill real live human beings. People who are smart in one area (writing computer code) who have no appreciation for the complexity of systems or empathy for humans likely to be impacted should not be in a position to make stupid decisions.

The one that has me particularly vexed is the gleeful destruction of the US Agency for International Development. Since my undergrad and first grad school experiences were both in international relations and I started professional life in Washington, DC, I’m familiar with USAID and its function. I also understand the critics who worry about the US imposing its will on other countries through foreign aid programs in ways that might seem or be colonialist - valid criticism and concern.

Nonetheless, the $40 Billion we spent per year on USAID was a remarkable way to really change the world for the better. Millions of lives have been saved or positively impacted through refugee and relief programs, food programs, and a wide range of public health initiatives. In just the weekend that funding has been frozen, I suspect that dozens of people have died and contracted HIV/AIDS, not to mention thousands of big hearted people doing the work suddenly finding themselves at economic and security risk.

For people who profess to believe in the teachings of Jesus, I can’t think of too many more heartless, blatantly anti-Christian actions than cutting off food and medicine from the poor and suffering. US diplomatic gains across the globe are being reversed, and decades of public image building of the US as a wealthy nation that understands its privilege and acts to support countries with fewer resources have been wrecked in a matter of days.

For all of that to happen based on a stupid decision, with no understanding or regard of the consequences, and no strategic or tactical thought given to the inordinate complexity of a global aid organization, is going to remain an iconic image of the upside-down-ness of this new era of greedy, heartless, anti-Christian, power hungry bullying. It will take a lot of work to rebuild our national credibility as anything approaching a “shining city on the hill”.