Insecurity

My first area of study in life was international relations and global geopolitics in the 1980s made me really curious about national security studies. The 20th century and its various conflicts drew me in, just as new and virulent forms of “low intensity conflict” gained momentum. The Cold War accelerated the rise of terrorism as a tool of warfare, and low intensity conflicts bubbled around the globe, often as the manifestation of conflict between groups supported by the global East and the global West.

The principal theory governing international security was “mutual assured deterrence”, or MAD. The idea was that the Soviet Union and the US possessed enough nuclear weapons to ensure that we would vaporize each other, and the rest of the world, if either side was to start a conflict of the scale of World War II. Sure, there were major conflicts and destruction in places like Korea and Vietnam and Afghanistan, but they were largely proxy battles where Soviet and US forces never faced off directly. That could have been catastrophic. If you define “security” as the absence of threat, we weren’t exactly secure and there was a consistent level of tension. Yet we managed to avoid global conflict.

Another part of the deal was that we, the world, would limit the number of other powers with access to nuclear weapons. The strategy of nonproliferation required international monitoring of the technology and materials required to make nuclear weapons, with regular revisiting of treaties and compliance. As the Soviet Union fell apart, we managed to keep most of their weapons within the parameters of the agreement, even as nations like Israel and Iran were attempting to secretly build nuclear capability (the former with great success, the latter not so much). China continued to build nuclear forces outside the scope of international treaties but the international community has reluctantly worked to confine and contain the Chinese military.

A great deal of the reason this framework was possible was an international willingness to trust the US. Trust that we would abide by our agreements and trust that we took the responsibility of stewarding nonproliferation seriously. Other countries with the will, desire and resources to become nuclear powers held off with belief in US promises and leadership. I was personally invested since my first grown up job was doing counterterrorism analysis for the Defense Intelligence Agency, where all of the old models of international security played out in real life. The rules and the players were pretty clear - conflict still happened but by the 1980s it didn’t feel existential thanks to the Pax Americana. Peace due to America’s efforts (again, far from perfect, but better than alternatives).

This week nearly 80 years of hard won agreement was thrown on the trash heap with a series of historic diplomatic blunders born of ignorance, stupidity, and narcissism. Having spent the first part of my life working in international relations, it’s really hard to believe the speed at which alliances can be shattered. A number of countries are already actively figuring out how to form new alliances and rapidly build up their defense capacity to fill the gap left by a United States that has completely upended the international order. The level of fear and danger is rising rapidly - we live in a much more insecure world.

It would be one thing for the US to pull back to a nationalist, isolationist position that would leave the rest of the world on its own. That’s not what Trump is doing. We have suddenly become allies with Russia - an isolated dictatorship with a smaller economy than most of the European Union, and many US states. We’re actively creating an access of practitioners and admirers of fascism and dictatorial government. By the way, our new “allies” are pretty uniformly fascist and racist.

It’s hard to figure out what Trump and his band of spineless cultists would be doing differently if their goal were to destroy the US government, trash the global economy, and pave the way for dictators around the world to wreck havoc. We are seriously insecure in the worst possible sense of that word. Today Trump declared he is literally the King, and Republican members of Congress have admitted they’re afraid to challenge Trump because of threats to their physical safety. From their own people!

I feel secure in my house, with my wonderful wife, my stepson, and my dogs. Today I have a great job and get to do meaningful work with people I like. Today I am grateful and even feel secure in a sense - free from immediate threat or harm. But danger lurks.

As discouraged as I am by the brutal stories coming out of people losing jobs and immigrants being kidnapped by ICE and shipped off to prison camps in other countries, I am increasingly encouraged by the stories of normal, ordinary people refusing to back down. Universities are not showing much strength nationally, but there are individuals and pockets of strength. The courts seem to be holding, public sentiment is quickly shifting away from Trump, and we may be on the verge of an awakening of some kind. We can choose a path away from insecurity, and attempt to put the world back right side up.